A look at what motivates US voters
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A LOOK AT WHAT MOTIVATES U.S. VOTERS
With the U.S. presidential election just a few weeks away, Rabobank wrote an analysis on what drives U.S. voters and the overall conclusion is: it depends on the issue at stake. The bank analyzed a 2022 survey from AP VoteCast to understand how voters think and how they will decide at this upcoming election.
This is by no means conclusive or definitive, but it does provide an insight on how U.S. voters tend to behave when faced with specific issues.
Voters who believe economic conditions are "poor" are more likely to vote for a Republican candidate. In contrast, those who view the economy to be "good" are likely to vote Democrat.
Those who think economic conditions are "not so good" are also more likely to favor a Democrat, suggesting President Biden is not getting "all the blame for the disappointing economy" or that voters will likely "make a trade-off between the economy and other issues," Rabobank writes.
On social policy matters, voters are more likely to vote for a Republican candidate if they think abortion should be illegal in all or most cases, if they view that racism is not too serious, if they are not all concerned about COVID, and if they strongly favor increased border security.
Demographics also determine voter behavior, the Rabobank analysis shows.
Men are more likely to vote Republican. In contrast, women and non-binary people are more likely to vote Democrat, according to the research. The same is true for black, Latino and Asian people, which are seen favoring a Democrat.
White people, on the other hand, are more likely to vote Republican, the analysis indicates. People with a higher income will probably choose a Republican as well, but – at a given income level – college graduates with postgraduate degrees are more likely to choose a Democrat candidate.
There are more nuanced results, Rabobank says. For instance, the likelihood of voting Republican increases with age until it peaks at the 50-64 segment, then it slips a little.
In addition, taking a closer look at the Hispanic vote, the bank's analysis indicates that Cuban Americans are more likely to vote Republican. Finally, Rabobank notes that regression results imply that black men are less likely to vote Democrat than black women.
(Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss)
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