Beware of going all in on Trump bets
Nasdaq ~flat, S&P 500, Dow edge red
Energy leads S&P sector gainers; Real Estate weakest group
Euro STOXX 600 index off ~0.3%
Dollar, gold up; crude up ~2%; bitcoin down ~2%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield rises to ~4.15%
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BEWARE OF GOING ALL IN ON TRUMP BETS
Trump trades have once again emerged as one of the top themes in financial markets with presidential elections in the world's largest economy now just two weeks away.
Analysts however caution against going all in on assets that they expect to benefit from a Trump victory, recalling that the actual outcome of the vote might surprise, just as it did in 2016.
"Over the past several weeks, equity market leadership has looked more like the 2016 election playbook. Meanwhile, bonds have sold off, and several precious metals and crypto currencies have continued their upward momentum," Morgan Stanley writes.
"Given these dynamics, markets may now be offsides to some extent should Harris win," it says, adding that a Harris victory could spark a rally in bonds, along with defensive and quality growth stocks outperforming.
With the latest polls tilting toward former president Donald Trump, it has boosted the U.S. dollar and bitcoin BTC=, while major benchmark stock indexes on Wall Street are at fresh record highs.
In Europe, investors are concerned about Trump tariffs. GlobalData.TSLombard says it will be key which party seizes control of Congress.
"If Trump wins the Presidency, but Republicans also win the House and the Senate, then it's going to be a lot easier for Trump to implement his policies," Andrea Cicione, head of research at the UK research company says.
"However, we know that his policies also include tax cuts that is good for the U.S. economy and in turn the European economy too," he adds.
(Paolo Laudani and Ankika Biswas)
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FOR MONDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
GOLD: A BATTLE LINE IS DRAWN - CLICK HERE
ARE EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS LOW ENOUGH? - CLICK HERE
THE 'NO LANDING' SCENARIO THAT COULD SUPPORT U.S. EQUITIES - CLICK HERE
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EUROPEAN FUTURES EDGE LOWER - CLICK HERE
SAP SETS THE TONE - CLICK HERE
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