Crown weakens before expected Czech rate cut, following forint
WARSAW, Sept 25 (Reuters) -The crown edged lower on Wednesday before an expected Czech interest rate cut while the forint touched a 1-1/2 week low after Hungarian rate setters resumed their policy easing after a short pause.
The Czech and Hungarian central banks have been the most consistent in central Europe in loosening policy since last year, with the latter reducing what had been the highest rates in Europe through a combined 1,150 basis points in cuts.
Hungary's central bank, after a pause last month, cut interest rates again on Tuesday and markets expect the Czech National Bank to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut later on Wednesday.
By 1022 GMT the crown EURCZK= had eased 0.12% to 25.1240 per euro, pulling back after slowly firming toward the psychological 25 per euro level in previous sessions.
ING said inflation that has been above central bank forecasts may prompt the bank to stay hawkish in its outlook, which could give the crown a boost.
"We believe the CNB can push EUR/CZK below 25.00 today," ING said.
On Tuesday, the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) trimmed its base rate HUINT=ECI by 25 basis points to 6.5%, aided by a drop in inflation and last week's larger-than-usual cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The NBH cut put Hungary's benchmark rate on par with Romania's, but still at the European Union's highest level.
The forint EURHUF= was 0.11% lower against the euro at 394.90, a shade weaker than before the rate cut and near the middle of the range it has traded in since early June.
Equilor brokerage analysts said Hungarian rate setters will need to balance the inflation outlook and price developments in the services sector, along with the risks in external trade, the country's budget, and financial market stability.
The forint has been the worst performer in central Europe this year, with a 3% drop, although markets took Tuesday's cut with some steadiness as the forint is still hovering in a range of 390-399 to the euro seen since July.
In Poland, the zloty EURPLN= was 0.14% lower against the euro at 4.2645, giving back most of the gains it made on Tuesday when it firmed to its strongest since mid-July.
"The zloty continues to benefit from growing expectations of interest rate cuts by major central banks. However, support at 4.25 should slow down the pair's declines," Alior Bank analysts said.
Poland's central bank has repeatedly pointed to uncertainty in keeping its main rate steady at 5.75% since surprise cuts last fall.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1222 CET | |||
CURRENCIES | |||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | ||
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.1240 | 25.0935 | -0.12% | -1.68% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 394.9000 | 394.4500 | -0.11% | -2.97% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2645 | 4.2584 | -0.14% | +1.88% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9763 | 4.9760 | -0.01% | -0.04% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 117.0700 | 117.0600 | -0.01% | +0.15% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | |||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
close | change | in 2024 | |||
Prague | .PX | 1586.16 | 1582.7500 | +0.22% | +12.17% |
Budapest | .BUX | 73627.66 | 73557.89 | +0.09% | +21.46% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2338.10 | 2337.49 | +0.03% | -0.21% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 17650.34 | 17644.15 | +0.04% | +14.83% |
Spread | Daily | ||||
vs Bund | change in | ||||
Czech Republic | spread | ||||
2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.2160 | -0.0120 | +111bps | -3bps |
5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.4540 | 0.0560 | +148bps | +3bps |
10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.7280 | -0.0200 | +157bps | -5bps |
Poland | |||||
2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.7250 | -0.0960 | +262bps | -11bps |
5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.0020 | 0.0050 | +302bps | -2bps |
10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.4130 | 0.0070 | +325bps | -2bps |
FORWARD | |||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | ||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.71 | 3.42 | 3.11 | 4.28 |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 5.90 | 5.50 | 5.04 | 6.35 |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.76 | 5.36 | 4.69 | 5.85 |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | ||||
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Reporting by Karol Badohal in Warsaw, Krisztina Than in Budapest and Jason Hovet in Prague
Editing by Tomasz Janowski
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