Forint and crown drift lower after rate cuts, dollar also weighs
WARSAW, Sept 26 (Reuters) -The forint eased to a two-week low on Thursday following the latest Hungarian interest rate cut, while the crown also drifted weaker following further Czech policy easing.
Hungarian rate-setters resumed monetary policy easing after a one-month pause on Tuesday. A day later, the Czech National Bank delivered its own 25-basis-point interest rate cut, extending an easing cycle in place since December.
The reductions followed last week's larger-than-usual cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Hungary's central bank, which has cut borrowing costs by a combined 1,150 bps since May 2023, sounded a cautious note on further steps this week, and on Thursday it upped its tax-adjusted core inflation projections due to the government's deficit-fighting tax hikes next year.
The forint EURHUF=, though, continued to slip on Thursday, losing 0.3% to trade at 396.50 to the euro, the weaker end of a range it has recently traded in.
A dealer said dollar moves, following overnight strengthening for the U.S. currency, had prompted some profit-taking amid muted activity.
Markets have started taking more cues from external factors, like the outlook for just-started easing cycles by major central banks such as the European Central Bank and U.S. Fed.
The crown EURCZK= touched a one-week low on Thursday and was trading at 25.16 per euro, after slipping on Wednesday following the Czech rate cut.
Bank CSOB analysts said a less hawkish tone weighed. "At the same time, risk aversion in global markets rose," they said.
The Czech central bank is also taking a cautious approach to further policy steps. Many analysts, though, expect quarter-point rate cuts at the final two meetings this year, in November and December.
Market rates were mostly unmoved after the Czech central bank meeting, and still price in another 75 bps in cuts in the next six months.
In Poland, the zloty EURPLN= edged 0.1% lower to 4.2730 per euro, pulling further away from two-month highs hit earlier this week.
"The behavior of the zloty in the second half of the week should be linked to the situation on EURUSD. Investors are generally ignoring events other than U.S. data," Bank ING BSK analysts wrote in a note.
"For now, the risk of the dollar weakening again remains high, which suggests significant chances for EURPLN to return closer to this year's lows (around 4.25)," they added.
Poland's central bank has held steady on rates since a few initial cuts last year. In comments published on Wednesday by Money.pl website, central banker Iwona Duda said discussion about rate cuts could start in March at the earliest.
The National Bank of Poland is expected to publish its monetary policy assumptions for 2025, while rate setters will hold their decision meeting next week.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1210 CET | |||
CURRENCIES | |||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | ||
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.1600 | 25.1575 | -0.01% | -1.82% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 396.5000 | 395.2500 | -0.32% | -3.36% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2730 | 4.2674 | -0.13% | +1.67% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9760 | 4.9752 | -0.02% | -0.03% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9800 | 117.0800 | +0.09% | +0.23% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | |||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
close | change | in 2024 | |||
Prague | .PX | 1599.20 | 1590.0000 | +0.58% | +13.10% |
Budapest | .BUX | 74801.05 | 74378.07 | +0.57% | +23.39% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2365.39 | 2346.26 | +0.82% | +0.96% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 17646.51 | 17690.32 | -0.25% | +14.80% |
Spread | Daily | ||||
vs Bund | change in | ||||
Czech Republic | spread | ||||
2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.2010 | -0.0220 | +111bps | +2bps |
5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.4230 | -0.0300 | +145bps | +1bps |
10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.7110 | -0.0140 | +156bps | +3bps |
Poland | |||||
2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.7160 | -0.0260 | +263bps | +2bps |
5-year | PL5YT=RR | 4.9480 | -0.0540 | +298bps | -1bps |
10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.3350 | -0.0840 | +319bps | -4bps |
FORWARD | |||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | ||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.71 | 3.42 | 3.11 | 4.27 |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 5.88 | 5.94 | 5.45 | 6.34 |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.75 | 5.35 | 4.68 | 5.86 |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | ||||
************************************************************** |
Reporting by Karol Badohal in Warsaw, Jason Hovet in Prague and Anita Komuves in Budapest, Editing by Timothy Heritage
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