Global wind power set to grab record share of electricity market: Maguire
Repeats column published earlier. No change to text.
By Gavin Maguire
LITTLETON, Colorado, Oct 24 (Reuters) -Global wind-powered electricity generation could set a new record in 2024, as winter sets in throughout the northern hemisphere and wind speeds pick up across a majority of the world's wind farms.
This, in turn, could help wind power grab a record-high share of the worldwide electricity generation market.
Global wind electricity generation in the first nine months of 2024 has only climbed around 7% versus the same period in 2023, according to energy think tank Ember. But historical trends suggest this figure could spike in the final months of the year, pushing annual generation to a new record.
A late-year pick-up in wind output is likely because the annual peak in wind generation tends to occur during the northern hemisphere winter, as over 90% of operating wind farms are located in Asia, Europe and North America.
If wind production rises in line with these expectations, it would likely account for more than 10% of monthly global electricity output in November and December. This would be the first time it has ever eclipsed this level.
REGIONAL SPAN
Wind power's generation potential in the final months of 2024 will depend largely on wind speeds in China, the United States and Germany, which collectively are home to 64% of current global wind generation capacity, according to Global Energy Monitor (GEM).
China alone has a 43% share of global capacity (around 400,000 megawatts (MW)), making it by far the most important wind generation market.
Over the first nine months of 2024, China's wind-powered electricity generation was 712 terawatt hours (TWh), according to Ember.
That total was 11% higher than the same period in 2023, meaning China's full-year output is on track to rise by over 10% once generation during the final months of the year is complete.
The United States is the second-largest wind market, with around 145,000 MW of capacity.
From January through September, wind-powered electricity output was 333 TWh, up 6.2% from the same months last year.
Germany, Europe's largest wind producer, has around 47,000 MW of current wind capacity, which has generated around 94 TWh of electricity so far in 2024. That’s an increase of 7% versus the first nine months of 2023.
WINDS OF CHANGE?
There are several reasons to believe wind power will gain further ground in the electricity generation market in the coming years.
Global wind generation capacity has been one of the fastest-growing forms of electricity production so far this century. It expanded around 20% per year from 2001 through 2021, according to Ember.
True, global capacity growth has dropped to around half that rate since 2022 due to a mix of factors, including shortages of key components and steep inflation for parts and labour.
The slowdown has been particularly acute in North America and Europe, where utility-scale wind capacity expanded by only 5% and 7%, respectively, last year, according to Ember.
This negative trend has persisted through the first half of 2024. From January through August of this year, wind capacity in the United States expanded by just 2.4% year-on-year, according to data portal Cleanview.
And wind capacity expansions in Germany were also down slightly during the first half of 2024 compared to the first six months of 2023, according to WindEurope.
But experts believe this trend may soon reverse. Installations in Germany are projected to rebound later this year, thanks in part to the repair of the A27 motorway that is a key conduit for wind turbine parts. It was partially shut in the first half of the year after a water tunnel collapse.
And in the United States, the pace of wind installations is set to accelerate as project developers there rush to finish jobs ahead of a potential change in presidential administrations next year following the Nov. 5 elections.
The capacity expansion story is also quite robust in Asia. Wind capacity there grew by over 19% last year. This was the fastest annual growth in the continent since 2020.
China has been the main driver of this trend, and this looks set to continue, as the country has already installed 39,000 MW of new wind capacity so far this year, according to the Centre for Research and Clean Air (CREA), which is up 17% from 2023.
While optimism surrounding wind power's potential dimmed in recent years, the expected jump in output in the coming months and projected capacity expansions in 2025 may mean that, in this corner of the energy market, the winds are changing.
<The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.>
Seasonal wind power electricity generation by key region https://tmsnrt.rs/3YohMAq
Seasonal share of wind power in electricity generation by key region https://tmsnrt.rs/3Ahzmha
Seasonal wind electricity generation in key market https://tmsnrt.rs/48l7iGA
World wind power development pipeline https://tmsnrt.rs/3YwngKz
Wind generation capacity by region since 2000 https://tmsnrt.rs/4eTLfZZ
Reporting by Gavin Maguire; Editing by Anna Szymanski and Stephen Coates
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