Gold: A battle line is drawn
U.S. equity index futures slightly red: Nasdaq 100 off ~0.4%
Euro STOXX 600 index down ~0.5%
Dollar, gold up; crude up >1.5%; bitcoin down ~1%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield rises to ~4.14%
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GOLD: A BATTLE LINE IS DRAWN
Gold hit a record high on Monday, extending its blazing rally amid uncertainties surrounding the U.S. election, simmering Middle-East tensions and interest rate cuts by major central banks, while silver scaled a near 12-year peak.
Indeed, spot gold XAU= is now trading around $2,738, and is now up about 33% year-to-date (YTD).
However, the yellow metal is in the midst of a big test on the charts as it battles a log-scale resistance line from 1980 that resides around $2,725 this month:
Of note, the gold's 9-month Relative Strength Index (RSI) has now risen to 89.30, which is its most overbought reading since 89.38 in February 2008.
When gold was peaking in January 1980, this RSI topped at 93.53. Gold's 1980 high was not surpassed until late 2007.
In any event, the NYSE ARCA gold bugs index .HUI, a basket of gold mining companies, including Barrick Gold GOLD.N and Newmont Mining NEM.N, is up about 42% YTD vs an S&P 500 index .SPX gain of about 23% in 2024.
That said, the S&P 500 hit new highs last week, while the HUI is still down 46% from its record intraday high seen in 2011.
Meanwhile, of note, silver XAG=, with a 44% YTD gain, is outperforming gold this year.
With this, the gold/silver ratio has fallen from about 87.00 to around 80.00 now:
If gold continues rising, and this ratio breaks its monthly support line from 2011, silver gains may become super-charged.
(Terence Gabriel)
*****
FOR MONDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
ARE EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS LOW ENOUGH? - CLICK HERE
THE 'NO LANDING' SCENARIO THAT COULD SUPPORT U.S. EQUITIES - CLICK HERE
OIL BOUNCE LIFTS ENERGY, STOXX MUTED - CLICK HERE
EUROPEAN FUTURES EDGE LOWER - CLICK HERE
SAP SETS THE TONE - CLICK HERE
Gold10212024B https://tmsnrt.rs/4dZ5GDk
GoldSilverRatio10212024B https://tmsnrt.rs/3NvM677
(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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