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Zloty declines, erasing yearly gains on US election concerns



<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>CEE MARKETS-Zloty declines, erasing yearly gains on US election concerns</title></head><body>

WARSAW, Oct 23 (Reuters) - The Polish zloty fell further on Wednesday, at one point erasing all the gains it made this year, as concerns around the upcoming U.S. presidential election put emerging market assets under pressure.

Most emerging market currencies slipped on Wednesday, as investors tweaked their bets towards a gradual monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve which helped the dollar, while caution remained in run-up to the Nov. 5 election.

Recent market pricing of a Donald Trump victory has given the dollar a boost, as his proposed policies on taxes and tariffs are seen as inflationary, likely keeping U.S. interest rates high and undermining the currencies of trading partners.

By 1107 GMT, the zloty EURPLN= was down 0.35% against the euro at 4.336, off a session low of 4.3425, which was on par with where it had started the year.

"Clearly the market is preparing for the (U.S.) election and is discounting the probability distribution. Recently this probability favors Trump," a Warsaw-based trader said.

"This means a stronger dollar and a revision of expectations regarding the interest rates path in the States... (which) is a factor that simply carries risk aversion," the trader said, adding that the weakening zloty is part of a wider picture of pressure on emerging market assets.

"It seems to me that this will not end today or tomorrow. We have to accept this Nov. 5 perspective."

The trader also said that Poland's ministry of finance was visible on the market on Tuesday, trading foreign currencies at attractive levels.

In comments published on Wednesday, Polish central banker Ludwik Kotecki was quoted as saying that "the zloty may remain subject to greater fluctuations" due to the stronger impact of the forthcoming U.S. election on emerging market assets.

Kotecki said in the event of a Trump victory, uncertainty "will probably increase more, especially in our part of the world... This may result in pressure for the depreciation of our currency."

The zloty remains Central and Eastern Europe's best-performing currency this year on the back of stable interest rates and unblocked funds from the European Union.

Elsewhere, the Hungarian forint EURHUF= slipped 0.16% to 401.05 per euro, with local markets closed for a bank holiday.

The Czech crown EURCZK= was 0.12% firmer at 25.19.




CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1307 CET








CURRENCIES







Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2024








EURCZK=

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.1900

25.2200

+0.12%

-1.94%

EURHUF=

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

401.0500

400.4000

-0.16%

-4.45%

EURPLN=

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.3360

4.3210

-0.35%

+0.20%

EURRON=

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9740

4.9736

-0.01%

+0.01%

EURRSD=

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.0300

117.0500

+0.02%

+0.18%


Note: daily change

calculated from



1800 CET












Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2024








.PX

Prague

.PX

1638.06

1631.2600

+0.42%

+15.84%

.BUX

Budapest

.BUX

73846.09

73846.09

+0.00%

+21.82%

.WIG20

Warsaw

.WIG20

2234.16

2250.38

-0.72%

-4.64%

.BETI

Bucharest

.BETI

17379.72

17337.55

+0.24%

+13.07%













Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread









Czech Republic






CZ2YT=RR

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.4710

0.0330

+134bps

+10bps

CZ5YT=RR

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.8020

-0.0060

+169bps

+3bps

CZ10YT=RR

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.0600

0.0240

+176bps

+4bps


Poland






PL2YT=RR

2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.9980

-0.0110

+287bps

+6bps

PL5YT=RR

5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.4660

0.0240

+335bps

+6bps

PL10YT=RR

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.8050

0.0230

+350bps

+4bps










FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS








3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank


Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

3.81

3.53

3.34

4.11


Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

6.84

6.58

6.37

6.40


Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

5.68

5.31

4.87

5.85



Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices






**************************************************************








Reporting by Karol Badohal in Warsaw; Editing by Varun H K

For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets:
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Other news and reports
World central bank news CEN Economic Data Guide ECONGUIDE
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