The 'no landing' scenario that could support U.S. equities - UBS
STOXX 600 down 0.3%
Crude oil rebounds
China cuts key lending rates
Wall St futures down
Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
THE 'NO LANDING' SCENARIO THAT COULD SUPPORT U.S. EQUITIES - UBS
Since the Fed started hiking rates in 2022, debate has swirled over whether the U.S. economy faces a soft or hard landing, but Mark Haefele, global wealth management CIO at UBS, posits there could be a third alternative; a "no landing."
This would see inflation close to the Fed's target while growth stays at or surpasses previous trend estimates.
Too good to be true? Recent data suggests the "no landing" could be on the horizon for the U.S.
And on the back of some positive macroeconomic signs, UBS has upgraded U.S. equities to 'attractive' from 'neutral', targeting 6,600 for the S&P 500 by end-2025, which would see 13%-14% total returns from current levels.
The bank anticipate similar returns from the MSCI All Country World index, also upgraded to 'attractive.'
So what are the positive signs underpinning their optimism?
Haefele cites recent labor market data. Earlier this month, a blowout US employment report reinforced the U.S. economy's resilience.
Last week, data showed strong discretionary spending buoyed U.S. retail sales in September. U.S. GDP figures have also been revised higher in recent months.
Further bolstering Haefele's "no landing" vision is the fact that inflation continues trending downwards towards the Fed's target, and a looming U.S. election doesn't seem to be too much of a concern.
"The US presidential election is unlikely to derail positive fundamentals," writes the UBS CIO, though he does think volatility will rise in the run up.
"We would caution against knee-jerk or simplistic assumptions of equity market outcomes based on individual policies, as the potential implications will need to be viewed in the context of what can actually be implemented, and potential policy sequencing," he writes in a daily note.
(Lucy Raitano)
******
EARLIER ON LIVE MARKETS:
OIL BOUNCE LIFTS ENERGY, STOXX MUTED CLICK HERE
EUROPEAN FUTURES EDGE LOWER CLICK HERE
SAP SETS THE TONE CLICK HERE
免责声明: XM Group仅提供在线交易平台的执行服务和访问权限，并允许个人查看和/或使用网站或网站所提供的内容，但无意进行任何更改或扩展，也不会更改或扩展其服务和访问权限。所有访问和使用权限，将受下列条款与条例约束：(i) 条款与条例；(ii) 风险提示；以及(iii) 完整免责声明。请注意，网站所提供的所有讯息，仅限一般资讯用途。此外，XM所有在线交易平台的内容并不构成，也不能被用于任何未经授权的金融市场交易邀约和/或邀请。金融市场交易对于您的投资资本含有重大风险。
所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。
本网站上由XM和第三方供应商所提供的所有内容，包括意见、新闻、研究、分析、价格、其他资讯和第三方网站链接，皆保持不变，并作为一般市场评论所提供，而非投资性建议。所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为适用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。请确保您已阅读并完全理解，XM非独立投资研究提示和风险提示相关资讯，更多详情请点击 这里。
