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Volatility remains elevated in FX space and commodities – Volatility Watch



  • Euro/dollar volatility reaches new 30-day high
  • Volatility in both gold and silver jumps
  • Stock indices continue to experience average volatility

Euro/dollar volatility has climbed to the highest level of the past month, as the ECB delivered its much-expected rate cut and the discussion about the November Fed meeting is underway. But more importantly, the market is preparing for the November 5 US presidential election. Interestingly, the volatility of yen crosses remains at average levels, with the yen remaining on the back foot as a snap election in Japan will be held on October 27.

Volatility in both gold and silver reached new monthly highs as these precious metals recorded significant weekly price gains. Geopolitics and US election risks have mostly contributed to the rally. In the meantime, volatility in oil has eased considerably despite the barrage of attacks from both Israel and Iran’s proxies. Maybe the lingering disappointment from China’s recent stimulus announcements is keeping oil prices under pressure.

With most stock indices recording small weekly price movements, volatility dropped across the board but remains at average levels. Apart from the big events ahead, market participants are also digesting the third quarter earnings reports and the recent Fedspeak, which is expected to increase considering the busy IMF meeting schedule.

Finally, bitcoin is experiencing decent volatility. After managing to record a sizeable price rally, the king of cryptos is now stabilizing north of the $65k area, partly influenced by the muted bullish sentiment that is present in equities.

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